I recently published the following blog post outlining 3 key rules designed to minimise drawdown exposure when following our systems. You can find the link below.
In this follow-up blog post, I will compare two betting strategies: backing all selections from the MULTI-SYS system versus backing only those that meet the 3-rule criteria. The difference in drawdown is notably improved when applying the 3 rules. I will also provide a practical example from the last 3 days of racing, which, interestingly, turned a loss into a profit when applying the 3 rules.
Yesterday, using the 3-rule approach, the system drawdown dropped into single figures after Agnes Grey won at 14/1 SP (or 20/1 on Betfair SP). However, despite this win, the drawdown increased to 12.52 points after four subsequent losses by the end of the day. In contrast, if backing every horse (including duplicate system selections), the total drawdown stands at 79.32 points from the previous high. This shows a significant reduction of 66.8 points when following the 3-rule method.
3-Rule Reminder:
1: Avoid races where we have more than one bet in the same race.
2: Limit duplicate system qualifiers to one bet only.
3: Back only systems 4, 7, and 8 if the available odds meet the advised prices.
The worst historical drawdown when backing all selections is 180.61 points, which is why a bank of 400 points is recommended for this approach. However, when following the 3-rule approach, the record historical drawdown is cut to 124.75 points. This suggests that the recommended bank size could be reduced to 300 points when applying the 3 rules.
The historical strike rate with the 3-rule method currently stands at 12.68%, an improvement over the 12.18% strike rate when backing everything (boosting the strike rate by 0.5%). While this may seem small, even marginal improvements can significantly impact long-term results.
Applying the 3 Rules
Now, let’s apply the 3 rules to the last 3 days of racing and see how they could turn a loss into a profit.
If we had backed every selection over the past 3 days (two of which were particularly challenging), we would have incurred a loss of -7.27 points to Betfair SP.
However, if we had applied the 3 rules, we would have achieved a profit of 4.74 points (an improvement of 11 points compared to the previous result):
Let’s break down each rule to see which horses were removed after applying it:
1: Avoid races where we have more than one bet in the same race.
All of these horses were removed in one go because they were in races with more than one bet, meaning they wouldn’t have been backed.
2: Limit duplicate system qualifiers to one bet only.
The only horse we would have backed from the list is Unforgettable Belle, which was selected by two separate systems (#29 and #32). We limit duplicate system qualifiers to a single bet. Given its status as an unlikely 80/1 outsider, I wouldn’t want to back it more than once regardless.
But why didn’t we back Basilette with a single bet, even though it was picked up by systems #31 and #34? Basilette was avoided because it was in a race with more than one qualifier, so it was already removed by Rule 1 of the system. Notice below that Sea The Buckthorn was also in the same race. As per Rule 1, we avoid races with multiple qualifiers, so this race was excluded
3: Back only systems 4, 7, and 8 if the available odds meet the advised prices.
Finally, let’s look at Rule 3
From the list above, Milltown Lily was a non-runner. Of the remaining four runners, we would have backed only two: Valsorpresa and Morandi Second. This is because only these two were available at odds that met the advised prices. We wouldn’t have backed Sea Aster or Miss Willows, as their odds did not meet the advised prices. Please see the guide prices below.
By following the 3 Rules, you might have avoided an additional point by not backing Morandi Second. Originally, there were two runners in this race, but Milltown Lily was later declared a non-runner. According to Rule 1, which advises avoiding races with multiple bets, you may have already chosen to avoid this race entirely. Strictly speaking, if you noticed this later, you could have backed Morandi Second, as it was the only qualifying bet left for the race.
I hope you find this breakdown helpful for understanding how to apply the 3 rules.
Further Related Reading:
Comparing Results: The Impact of Ignoring the 3 Rules on Drawdown