I recently talked about losing runs, and unfortunately, I seem to have spoken one into existence. We've been in an extended period of drawdown since around the time I made that post.
Yesterday, I shared some tips in the system notes on how to reduce the recent drawdown. Here they are:
* Back only systems 4, 7, and 8 if the available odds meet the advised prices.
* Limit duplicate system qualifiers to one bet only.
* Avoid races where we have more than one bet in the same race (as explained in more detail below).
By following these three steps, the recent drawdown could have been significantly reduced to 18 points (since the 24th August) at Betfair SP.
One simple way to reduce drawdown risk is by avoiding races with multiple runners, like the 16:07 at Haydock on Saturday, where three separate runners were identified. In such situations, you may have two or more selections taking on a heavily-fancied odds-on horse, or multiple longshots in a large field. During a downturn, steering clear of these races can significantly limit drawdown. For instance, by skipping these types of races since just Friday alone, you could have saved 20 points at bookmaker SP.
During a downturn, it often feels like Lady Luck is rubbing salt in the wound. Take yesterday, for example: the first race ended with a classic case of 'heads up and heads down' going against us in a very tight photo finish.
Here are our bets from yesterday:
The average starting price (SP) of these bets was 12.64. Following the rules outlined above, three of these nine bets would have been avoided. The first bet we would have avoided is Sea Aster.
Sea Aster performed poorly, struggling to navigate the obstacles. It appeared less suited to steeplechase racing, seeming smaller compared to most of its rivals. Its shorter stride and reduced jumping power made it more difficult to clear the jumps cleanly, leading to increased risk of stumbling and losing momentum, which was evident yesterday. Despite being backed down from around 5/1 to 3/1, it clearly wasn’t a smart bet. Additionally, it was a bet to avoid as it wasn't available at the advised odds of at least 13/2 for SYS#4.
The next two bets to avoid were American Star and Starshiba. According to the rules outlined:
Avoid races where we have more than one bet in the same race.
Since we had two runners in this race, it was one to avoid. As it turned out, that was a wise decision, as neither placed in a field of 6. Starshiba finished a length and a quarter behind the winner in 3rd, while American Star was a neck behind Starshiba in 4th.
We did have some horses place, including:
Byron Hill at 9/2 SP (finished a very close 2nd in a photo finish).
Valsorpresa at 10/1 SP (finished 2nd, just 1¼ lengths behind the winner).
Thisismydream at 13/2 SP (finished 2nd but was well beaten by the winner, finishing 5½ lengths behind).
Kinematica at 28/1 SP (finished a very close 3rd, just a neck behind the horse in 2nd, which was itself only a neck behind the winner).
Nights Over Egypt finished 3rd out of 7 at 40/1 SP, just missing out on a place. For those who prefer backing longshots each way—sometimes a good strategy to manage drawdowns—certain bookmakers, like Sky Bet, may offer an extra place in such races.
Ultimately, 4 out of the 6 remaining qualifiers, when following the rules above, finished in the places, and 3 went close at good odds. However, when luck isn’t on your side, those near-misses don’t tend to go your way. It’s a classic case of 'close, but no cigar!’
Sooner or later, luck will turn, but it's impossible to predict how long a losing streak might last. That's why we recommend maintaining a substantial bankroll of 400 points when following all of our systems. Our largest drawdown to date was 180.61 points from a previous high. However, once we entered a winning streak, we were able to recover swiftly, surpassing the previous high in just 59 bets.
Although 180.61 points is less than half of the advised bank of 400 points, it’s crucial not to skimp on your bankroll. If you opt for a smaller bank of just 200 points, you run a significant risk of busting it at some stage, especially given that many of our systems have low strike rates and can experience extended drawdowns.
Please be sure to check out the important follow-up article to this blog post.