It's impossible to evade the laws of variance in value betting, and attempting to do so would be both foolish and unrealistic. It would be dishonest of me to suggest otherwise.
In a recent post, I discussed how some of the systems have struggled to find winners this month. You can find that post here:
I’ve included the relevant part of that post here:
August has been challenging for several of our systems. One potential reason could be the consistent race conditions we've experienced during the hot summer weather this month. Stable weather can lead to more predictable races, potentially favouring the favourites and reducing the likelihood of surprise outcomes.
The following data seems to support this theory:
The above data shows the longest losing streaks we've experienced since the end of February this year. It's important to note that horses selected by multiple systems are counted each time they appear. For instance, if a horse was picked by more than one system, it’s counted for each system.
The longest losing streak recorded was 42, with all but one of these extended losing runs occurring within the last five and a half weeks. This can partly be attributed to the introduction of more systems, leading to a higher volume of bets and, consequently, a greater risk of extended losing runs. Notably, one of our newer systems, SYS#35, has a strike rate just above 5%, making it prone to contributing to drawdowns and longer losing streaks.
This increase in betting volume, combined with the high frequency of races at this time of year and the addition of lower strike rate systems like SYS#29 and SYS#35, explains some of these longer losing runs. However, I also believe that the glorious summer weather we've enjoyed this month may have affected our ability to find high-priced winners as frequently as we'd like. And as already contemplated, unpredictable conditions like wet or soft ground can sometimes lead to unexpected results, where less favoured horses outperform expectations.
Consistency of Races:
Predictability: Good weather tends to create consistent race conditions, which can reduce the chances of unexpected results. This often benefits favourites, as stable conditions lessen the unpredictability.
Form and Fitness: Consistent weather allows horses to train and race under similar conditions, potentially giving an edge to favourites who are better prepared and more likely to win.
How Long Can We Expect a Losing Run to Last?
Here are longest losing runs when backing every single MULTI-SYS selection since the end of February this year:
The longest losing run to date is 42 bets without a winner. However, 7 of those losses were duplicate bets (the same horse appearing in two separate systems). So, for those of you who only back duplicate system bets once, the actual losing run was 35 bets. But let’s assume you backed all 42 in this losing sequence. Is 42 bets more than we should expect given the overall strike rate? The current overall strike rate is 12.58%, with 155 winners from 1,232 runs to date.
The predicted ELLR (Estimated Longest Losing Run) for this volume of runners and strike rate is 53. So, a losing streak of 42 bets without a winner is actually well within the expected parameters for this volume of bets and strike rate.
Yesterday, our strike rate fell below 12.58%, with only 2 winners from 19 runners (after removing 5 non-runners), resulting in a strike rate of 10.53%. If you included the only duplicate system entry (since all other duplicates were non-runners), the strike rate would have been 2 from 20, or 10%.
At the York Ebor Festival meeting, we had 3 winners from 24, which gives a strike rate of 12.5%, nearly matching our current overall strike rate of 12.58%. If you backed the only duplicate entry at York, it would have been 3 winners from 25, resulting in a strike rate of 12%.
It's important to remember that when operating at a low strike rate of around 12.5%, lengthy losing runs are inevitable and unavoidable. This is why a substantial bankroll of 400 points is recommended if you're backing every single system.
Please remember, it's impossible to evade the laws of variance in value betting, and attempting to do so would be both foolish and unrealistic. It would be dishonest of me to suggest otherwise.