SYS3 and SYS3 (Pace) had both been struggling in recent weeks; however, SYS3 (Pace) has been clawing back some lost ground of late. Yesterday it returned another 15.74 points (to Betfair SP), and now it’s 22.84 points away from its previous high. After reaching a record drawdown of 56.52 points recently, some of the worst damage has been mitigated in the last 5 days, with an overall return of 33.68 points during this period of betting.
Meanwhile, SYS3 made 13.74 points yesterday; however, it’s still got plenty more work to do, as it’s currently on a drawdown of 59.44 points.
In this previous post, I explained some ideas (such as this one) on how to keep a lid on system drawdown.
At the conclusion of that post, I detailed the following:
The rationale behind SYS3 (Pace) is that it’s a good way to help trim down the volume of bets on the main SYS3 data sheet. This should also help reduce the overall drawdown during a downturn. So it’s a good alternative for those that prefer to tread more carefully, as it helps to reduce the volume of required bets by over 1/3. Roughly speaking, for every 100 bets placed on SYS3, the SYS3 (Pace) alternative should only require around 63 or 64.
Hold-up horses prefer to avoid the early pace by racing in the rear, looking instead to make their move nearer the finish. One of the big disadvantages that hold-up horses typically face, though, is that they can get into difficulty when they look to make their move. They might get caught in a pocket and not be able to find a viable gap to open up in the field. This can mean the jockey will be forced to weave around (wasting both precious time and yards) looking for a clear run, by which time it can often be too late in the day to make their conserved energy truly count. Hence, our SYS3 (Pace) data sheet looks to avoid such bets.
Therefore, by steering clear of such bets, SYS3 (Pace) is currently experiencing a drawdown of 36.6 fewer points than SYS3.
Also, let's revisit the point mentioned in a previous post:
When following the above method, SYS3 (Pace) fired a “Go” signal last Thursday, following a 49-day hiatus.
Our Premium Members now receive daily updates, prominently displaying this information at the top of both the SYS3 and SYS3 (Pace) system sheets:
UPDATE NOTICE: I've decided to adjust the bottom-end target from 15.85% to a slightly higher figure of 16%. I've made this change because I think it is easier to work with a nice round whole number. Additionally, it hardly alters the overall strategy. Therefore, with this revision in mind:
I wait patiently until the strike rate drops to 16%, then I jump back on.
Then, when the system strike rate heats back up to 17%, I sit out again until the strike rate drops back down to 16% again. So I’m looking to try and time the cycles to the upside and downside in a more efficient manner.
One important consideration moving forward is the potential adjustment of our current upper and lower targets of 17% and 16% respectively, particularly for flat racing. This contemplation arises from the observation that the strike rate for winners tends to be slightly lower in flat racing compared to National Hunt racing, mainly due to larger average field sizes in flat races. To ensure accuracy, I'll need more data as the flat season progresses. It may be prudent to revise the range to between 15.75% and 16.75%, or even 15.5% to 16.5%, during the flat season. Rest assured, I'll keep you informed and notify you of the optimal levels once sufficient data becomes available for analysis.