Yesterday, I wrote this post:
Towards the end, I wrote the following:
The system is not going to hit new highs every week. To pretend otherwise is plain daft. No investment in the stock market ever reaches new all-time highs every week. Why should horse racing be any different? In fact, most stocks or shares take months (or more often years!) to recover and reach a new high after a market crash. I will write another post soon to show how, in fact, SYS3 compares more than favourably in this regard.
So here is the post promised, to essentially show how SYS3 compares favourably to stocks in this regard.
Let’s examine.
First of all, we’ll start with one of the best-performing UK stocks this century; it’s called Halma:
Notice how it enjoyed a lovely overall uptrend until January 2022, when the price dropped significantly. And now, 2 years later, the price is still over 1/3 less than it was 2 years earlier. And, it’s still got a lot of work to do in order to reach its previous high.
So how does this compare to SYS3? The first thing to acknowledge is that SYS3 only has data going back to mid-October 2023. Here are the gaps to date waiting for a new high to be reached.
Looking at the above data, the longest time we had to wait for SYS3 to reach a new high was 15 days, or just over 2 weeks. However, notice that the last date a new high was reached was January 9th, 2024. So nearly a month on, we are yet to take out this previous high. It’s not the best time of year for betting during the winter, with lots of race meetings having been lost to the weather in recent weeks. Nonetheless, SYS3 still compares more than favourably, as anybody invested in Halma has been waiting more than two long years to recapture lost ground. And they’ve still got plenty of work to do. And if you are lucky enough to make money from shares, you also have to consider the Capital Gains Tax to be paid when you eventually come to cash out.
The truth is that most people who speculate on horses have totally unrealistic expectations. Some expect professional tipsters to unearth good winners almost every day of the week, which, in truth, is impossible. Most sensible people understand that making good returns on the stock market requires patience. And it’s no different when it comes to horse racing. One needs a sensible long-term outlook in order to allow for system variance to play out in one’s favour. You won’t make big returns every week or every month; in fact, some weeks and months you can expect to make losses. The minimum timeframe you should judge a horse racing system over is, in my opinion, at least 3 months. Or, better yet, 6 months to a year. Anything less than at least 3 months is much too short-term and impatient. If you invested in the stock market and always pulled your money out after 3 months if a certain stock wasn’t performing well over the last few weeks, then you’d never have a chance of seeing any returns.
“To lose patience is to lose the battle.” — Mahatma Gandhi