Negativity in horse racing can be useful
Why a certain dose of negativity and realism can help carry us through
SYS3 got off to a flying start this month. However, things have since slowed down, as the below profit and loss line chart shows.
This really shouldn’t be a surprise to anybody, as it’s totally unrealistic to keep going at the same pace as the bumper start we had at the beginning of the month. In fact, a realistic dose of negativity is needed to be able to endure in horse racing, as I’ll come on to discuss shortly.
Yesterday we managed to stop the recent rot of 17 bets without a winner thanks to Haatem winning at 11 (Betfair SP).
The following shows our worst losing runs (i.e., consecutive number of bets without a single winner) to date for SYS3:
So yesterday was the second time we had encountered 17 bets before finding a winner. We’ve had worse sequences than this. One time we went 19 bets without a winner, another time we went 20 bets without a winner, and twice we’ve gone 22 bets without a winner. And it’s only a matter of time before we’ll exceed this. Our current sample size is 962 bets, during which time we’ve managed to find 162 winners (16.84% strike rate). The worst estimated forecasted losing run for this volume of bets, at a strike rate of 16.84%, is 37 without a winner. So we’re actually fortunate to not have already exceeded a sequence greater than 22 bets without a winner. Once the sample size reaches 2000 bets, I’d be very surprised if we had not exceeded a losing run beyond 22 bets. Sooner or later, variance is going to challenge our willpower with a losing run exceeding 30 or more consecutive losing bets. It’s not a case of whether it will; it’s more a case of when.
So why do we need a certain dose of negativity to endure in horse racing? Or for that matter in all walks of life. One answer lies in an excellent book by Simon Reeve I recently finished reading. Here’s a relevant quote from it:
“Negativity can be especially useful. Although we are now often surrounded by a cult of positivity, with endless books, lifestyle coaches and corporations encouraging us to think we are all winners who can simply visualise and then manifest our own success, being relentlessly positive can simply mean we fail to prepare for complications. A bout of negative thinking can actually be healthy, especially when you are planning to do something difficult or dangerous. Imagining the worst-case scenario with a bit of ‘negative visualisation’, which in my case probably just flows naturally from my cynical grumpiness, helps me to prepare, mentally and practically.”
This sentiment fits in well with an earlier post I made which you can find here:
In the post it says the following:
The single best way to handle [betting] turmoil—and the fears it can trigger—is to be prepared for it.
To navigate the emotional ups and downs of the perpetual cycle of horse racing betting, it's essential to brace yourself for the worst while striving for the best. By anticipating the inevitable fluctuations between abundance and scarcity, we equip ourselves to ride the unpredictable waves of fortune with greater resilience and adaptability.