The maximum-scoring "Above Average" horses had a tough day today, failing to find a single winner. The SYS3 and MULTI-SYS horses also drew blanks.
When applying the Above Average scoring retrospectively to the entire FULL ACTION (BONUS) sheet, which was launched on April 27th, here’s how the horses with maximum scores of 4 have performed to Betfair SP:
Yesterday, they touched an all-time high of 124.5 points. However, since then, they've only managed to find two short-priced odds winners from the last 27 bets, with no winners at all today. As a result, the current drawdown stands at nearly 26 points, which is slightly lower than the previous two worst drawdowns of 30 points.
Out of 450 bets placed so far, there have been 89 winners, yielding a current strike rate of 19.77%. Operating at nearly a 20% strike rate, the worst estimated losing run for this volume of bets is 28, with a previous sequence of 23 bets without a single winner. Currently, we're at 22 bets without a winner.
The current ROI stands at almost 22%, showcasing impressive performance. Variance, however, has a nasty habit of inducing major momentum shifts, either to the upside or downside.
Yesterday I wrote the following:
Currently, the sample comprises only 432 bets, with two drawdowns of 30 points each. While I typically prefer a sample size of at least 2000 bets, the results thus far are certainly encouraging. However, it's sensible to remain cautious until we gather a larger sample size before drawing definitive conclusions.
Over the last 16 days, the FULL ACTION (BONUS) sheet (as a whole) has managed to generate nearly 195 points to Betfair SP. However, it incurred a loss of 17.65 points over the last 3 days, after accumulating nearly 212.5 points over the previous 13 days. Prior to this, it faced a challenging drawdown of 76.2 points.
Here's the overall performance of the FULL ACTION (BONUS) sheet, plotted to Betfair SP prices, since its launch on April 27th.
In conclusion, today's stumble serves as a stark reminder of the inherent volatility in horse racing. However, it does not detract from the underlying potential of the horses scoring maximum points in the "Above Average" column. Achieving nearly 100 points in less than a month of betting is still a noteworthy feat. However, while the overall progress is promising, it's crucial to maintain vigilance, especially considering the relatively small sample size.
As we navigate through the peaks and troughs of variance, we will be required to weather the inevitable storms while charting a long-term course towards enduring success.
In the realm of horse racing, even the most meticulously crafted strategies can face significant challenges. Pretending otherwise is totally unrealistic.