MULTI-SYS strike rate analysis
Why are the strike rates so low on some of the MULTI-SYS systems?
This post follows on from the one I did yesterday, as posted here:
One thing that is apparent when you look at the stats is that some of the systems have a very low strike rate. Let’s examine:
SYS#21 only has a 6.1% strike rate.
SYS#22 (has been superseded by SYS#26).
SYS#23 has a 24.46% strike rate.
SYS#24 only has a 6.73% strike rate.
* The minimum advised odds for the SYS#24 system sheet are 13/2
SYS#25 has a 29.47% strike rate.
SYS#26 has a 27.1% strike rate.
SYS#27 only has a 7.51% strike rate.
SYS#28 only has a 6.94% strike rate.
* The minimum advised odds for the SYS#28 system sheet are 9/1
So four of the seven systems have low strike rates in single figures. Why is this so? The quick answer is because SYS#21, #24, #27, and #28 primarily focus on horses that will have above-average odds. Often, the odds of the horses for these systems will be in double digits.
Let’s pick out the one with the lowest historical strike rate, which is SYS#21.
Here is the recent betting activity for SYS#21:
So we’ve had 2 winners from the last 14 bets for SYS#21, which is actually a recent strike rate well above the historic strike rate of just 6.1%. So let’s look in more detail: why is the historic strike rate so low? The first thing to understand is that one of the selection criteria for this system is that any horse with a forecast starting price of under 8/1 is immediately ruled out. Bear in mind that the implied probability of 8/1 is a strike rate of 11.1%. However, lots of our selections have forecast SPs well in excess of 8/1. 8/1 is just the minimum for this system. In fact, the average Betfair SP price for SYS#21 qualifiers is around 50/1! The average BSP is skewed by some of the triple-digit qualifiers for SYS#21, as it’s not unusual for a 100/1 SP horse to have a BSP price possibly 2 or 3 times higher. The average historical winning BSP for SYS#21 is around 33/1. So when you consider this, the historic strike rate of just 6.1% is very favourable when weighed against the average winning BSP price. Nonetheless, a historic strike rate of just 6.1% is going to lead to some inevitable long losing runs. Sooner or later, the system could well run into a sequence of 50 or 60 consecutive bets without a winner. In fact, if you were really unlucky, it could even exceed 100 bets without a winner. So clearly, a system like this isn’t for the faint-hearted. Although occasionally it will unearth a whopping winner, in fact, the biggest one on record for this system returned at BSP odds in excess of 500/1! And it’s had several others win at triple-digit Betfair SP odds.
Because systems SYS#21, #24, #27, and #28 typically focus on horses with generous odds, usually well above average, this explains why the strike rates are so low for these systems. And because of the inevitable long periods without winners for these systems, it wouldn’t suit punters who prefer the regular reassurance of winners from systems with much higher strike rates. But for those that have enough patience (and a big enough bank) to ride out long losing runs, the rewards can be very big whenever they produce a huge priced winner to upset the odds.
If SYS#21, #24, #27, and #28 sound like too much of a wild ride, then you may prefer to instead consider SYS#25 and #26, which both have a much higher strike rate. Although the average winning SPs for those two systems will be much lower than they are for the lower strike rate systems of #21, #24, #27, and #28.